As students head back to classrooms, travelers squeeze in last-minute getaways and crowds pack San Francisco's summer festivals, California is experiencing a renewed uptick in COVID-19 infections - part of a broader national trend that health officials say echoes previous seasonal surges.
State health data shows that test positivity rates nearly doubled in July, from 3.94% on July 5 to 7.91% by July 26. While still categorized as low, the trajectory is concerning enough that public health officials are watching closely as fall approaches.
"I think COVID is still on the way up in California," said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease expert at UCSF. "We should expect to see more community cases, and later in the season than last year, based on Stanford wastewater data."
The virus's current increase, attributed to newer subvariants with nicknames like Stratus and Nimbus, coincides with the late-summer heat that drives people indoors - where respiratory viruses spread more easily.
Though highly transmissible, these variants aren't necessarily more dangerous, and Chin-Hong expects fewer hospitalizations and deaths than in previous years.
Wastewater data from the CDC and WastewaterSCAN also show climbing virus levels in California, one of only a few states currently reporting "high" or "very high" viral activity.
Nationally, emergency department visits for COVID remain relatively low but are ticking upward, especially among children under 4 - many of whom remain unvaccinated.
Chin-Hong said hospitalizations and deaths are also expected to increase for those over 75 in the coming weeks, "especially if that group has not been recently boosted or taken Paxlovid."
As of now, California public schools still require standard childhood vaccines, but not COVID-19 vaccinations - a move that reflects recent shifts in federal vaccine policy.
Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has scaled back vaccine recommendations, including withdrawing guidance for healthy children, despite objections from major medical groups.
Meanwhile, federal support for mRNA vaccine research - once central to the pandemic response - is being scaled back.
Kennedy announced Tuesday the elimination of $500 million in funding tied to mRNA development, prompting backlash from many scientists who view the technology as essential for responding to future viral threats.
An updated COVID-19 booster targeting the JN.1 variant is expected this fall, but uptake may be low. A recent KFF poll found that most adults say they are unlikely to get the new shot.
In the face of rising cases and evolving public health guidance, Chin-Hong urges people to stay vigilant. Even mild symptoms like sniffles or a sore throat - "razor blade or not" - could signal a COVID-19 infection, he said.
He emphasized the importance of vaccinating older adults, especially those who haven't had a shot or a recent infection in the past year. For people at higher risk or living with vulnerable individuals, early diagnosis is key.
And for older adults who haven't been recently vaccinated and do contract COVID-19, Chin-Hong reminds them not to overlook treatment options: "Paxlovid or early antivirals are a great option."
For now, public health officials emphasize simple precautions: stay home when sick, wash hands frequently and, when in crowded indoor spaces, consider wearing a mask - especially with school buses rolling and concert crowds gathering.
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