We are not very far removed from Christian McCaffrey owning the NFL. He has been among the greatest fantasy football assets in recent years, and the athleticism he has put on display has been truly astounding. As happens to many, injuries caught up with McCaffrey a year ago. After that 2024 filled with recovery, we must ask — Is Christian McCaffrey worth a 1st round pick in 2025?
There is a multi-faceted way to evaluate McCaffrey. To become a top-tiered running back you must: maintain health, maintain workload, find touchdown opportunity, and be very good at football. We will first evaluate his workload.
Estimating the Workload
The 49ers depth chart behind CMC has Isaac Guerendo and Jordan James. Unfortunately for him, Guerendo just suffered a shoulder injury in which he will be out for weeks. Jordan James could see minor work, but he is not a threat.
The 49ers have been adamant that McCaffrey enters 2025 fully-healthy and he will be under a full workload. The depth chart suggests nothing otherwise, so expect a healthy Christian McCaffrey to touch the football as much as anyone in the NFL. He passes this test.
Evaluating the Health-Risk
Is Christian McCaffrey healthy? Yes... for now. Soft-tissue injuries tend to be the kyrptonite for top NFL players. Science is true, and science says that when you suffer soft-tissue injuries, that tissue becomes scar tissue. Scar tissue itself is not as strong as its prior and thus, making it a lot more sensitive to re-aggravation. CMC may be healthy for now, but he is at a much higher risk. I would feel quite confident that he will be on the injury-report weekly and will almost definitely miss a last a couple games. The risk must be factored in to drafting him.
Christian McCaffrey shares injury update, ready for 2025 NFL seasonChristian McCaffrey shares injury update, ready for 2025 NFL season Read more: shorturl.at/ngRsQ
Posted by NBC Sports Bay Area / California on Wednesday, June 11, 2025
Opportunity of the 49ers Offense
Will the 49ers offense be good? Christian McCaffrey must be able to see the endzone often to become a 1st round fantasy talent. According to the ESPN football power index, the 49ers have the 8th best offense in the NFL.
As for their offensive line, they are about mid-pack in the NFL. This does not boost McCaffrey, but does not hurt him too bad. Their target-share? It will be commanded by Ricky Pearsall, Jauan Jennings, and George Kittle. None of this should take away from CMC and so expect a fair share of catches. The opportunity is not what it was in 2023, but it is still very respectable.
Is McCaffrey Good?
Yes, he is really good. CMC did not see enough snaps in 2024 to see a PFF grade, but eye test said that he has still got it. He just must stay healthy. I fully expect that Christian is still an elite NFL player and when healthy he will perform at a high level.
What is the Valuation of Christian McCaffrey?
Injuries are going to be the tell-tale on his ultimate value. Unfortunately, is it very hard to project missed time. Per draftsharks.com, he projects to miss 3.0 games this season. In my mental observation, that feels right to me. The positive of soft-tissue concerns are that, with correct rehab, it often may not leave for extended time out. McCaffrey has been seeing many specialists for his injuries and will recover better than anyone else. He will just need to be week-to-week and if you select him, take Guerendo as well.
I would ultimately rank Christian McCaffrey as a borderline 1st round pick. In standard formats, he probably is a first rounder. The running backs I would be comfortable selecting over McCaffrey are: Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, De'Von Achane, Derrick Henry, Ashton Jeanty, Josh Jacobs. Everyone else is up for debate. I would rank McCaffrey around 12-15 on my board, and probably pass until round 2, in most situations.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com/onsi/fantasy as Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Is 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey A First-Round Pick?.
